Thrifty Banker
  • Politics
  • Business
  • World
  • Investing
  • Politics
  • Business
  • World
  • Investing

Thrifty Banker

World

Ocean heat is off the charts, so where are the hurricanes? Forecasters warn a change is coming

by August 11, 2023
August 11, 2023
Ocean heat is off the charts, so where are the hurricanes? Forecasters warn a change is coming

Record-high ocean temperatures are setting the stage for an active Atlantic hurricane season with explosive tropical development, but just one thing is missing: storms. There have been no tropical storms in the Atlantic basin in nearly a month, and none so far this year have come close to the United States.

But the busiest stretch of hurricane season kicks off in less than a week. And with ocean heat running high, experts are urging people to get their safety plans in place and prepare for tropical trouble that could start within the next couple of weeks.

A growing expert consensus is now forecasting an uptick in hurricane activity. An updated outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday called for an above-average hurricane season – an increase from the near-normal forecast it released in May.

“We have increased the chance for above normal activity to 60% from 30%,” Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release. “The chances of a below normal season are now at only 15%.”

NOAA forecasters join other experts in the field that have recently increased their hurricane risk outlooks, including researchers at Colorado State University.

The forecasts are leaning on several climatological factors, but also on exceptionally warm oceans, which provide storms the fuel needed to explode in strength and even undergo rapid intensification. NOAA said sea surface temperatures were warmer than anticipated, and a major factor in increasing the odds of an active season.

“Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season,” Rosencrans said.

Global ocean temperatures are at their highest levels on record. This is especially the case in the Atlantic, where sea surface temperatures are much above average in areas where hurricanes typically form. Notably, sea surface temperatures in parts of the Gulf of Mexico are in the middle 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit – well above the 80 degrees needed to sustain tropical storm development. Water temperatures have even recently climbed above 100 degrees in shallower water closer to the Florida coast.

Even with the abundance of very warm water, no tropical development has occurred in the Atlantic since Hurricane Don dissipated in late July.

Despite the lack of US impacts so far, there have been five named storms, putting this season slightly above the climatological normal for tropical activity.

And there have been recent signs that the tropical Atlantic could soon spring to life. Several thunderstorm areas have come close to developing, only to be torn apart by two things: wind shear, which is the change in strength in winds in different levels of the atmosphere, and dry air, which can cut off a storm’s lifeblood – its thunderstorm activity.

Wind shear and dry air have largely won out over warm ocean water over the past few weeks, suppressing hurricane activity. This is not altogether unusual as wind shear is typically strong at the start of hurricane season and gradually begins to ease through July and into August.

But just how much of a reduction in wind shear and dry air occurs headed into the typical peak of hurricane season is in question. Notably, El Niño is present and growing in the Pacific Ocean – an ocean and weather pattern that typically promotes an increase in wind shear and makes Atlantic hurricane seasons less active.

Rosencrans said El Niño’s influence had yet to arrive in the Atlantic, but could do so in September. He said there were already signs of wind shear lessening over an area in the Atlantic where storms typically form and that lower than normal wind shear was expected for the season and factored into expectations for an increase in activity.

When wind shear lessens and dry air exits, hurricane season will be off to the races with extreme ocean temperatures ready to fuel stronger storms.

Take last year for instance: Two storms – Alex and Colin – had already impacted the US by this time last year, but Colin’s dissipation was quickly followed by a lengthy inactive stretch where no additional storms formed in July or August. But once September arrived, along with it came a quick uptick in activity that culminated in devastating Hurricane Ian slamming the US to end the month.

Tropical activity spikes across the Atlantic from mid-August to mid-October due to a relative minimum in wind shear and a relative maximum in sea surface temperatures. This period alone accounts for an astounding 96% of all major hurricane days in a season, according to NOAA.

Even if tropical activity doesn’t pick up considerably in the next few weeks, any storm that does manage to form over very warm water with no wind shear to inhibit it has the potential to explode in strength and turn dangerous fast. And with hot water in place near highly populated areas of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, disaster can quickly strike if a tropical system is able to tap into that abundant energy.

This post appeared first on cnn.com
0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Virgin Galactic launches first tourism mission after decades of promises
next post
2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Fast Facts

Related Posts

As a ground incursion looms, the big question...

October 22, 2023

No bathing during air raids – but beaches...

August 19, 2023

Cuba sees rare protests amid power cuts and...

March 19, 2024

Georgian president vetoes ‘foreign agents’ bill after widespread...

May 19, 2024

Cosmic ‘Christmas tree’ dazzles in new image captured...

November 10, 2023

Chinese tourists will be able to visit Taiwan...

August 25, 2023

Hurricane Lee lashing Bermuda before striking coastal New...

September 15, 2023

Strapped down, blindfolded, held in diapers: Israeli whistleblowers...

May 10, 2024

Six of the most beautiful sections of the...

September 18, 2023

Blinken visits Kyiv and makes clear the Biden...

September 9, 2023

    Sign up for our newsletter to receive the latest insights, updates, and exclusive content straight to your inbox! Whether it's industry news, expert advice, or inspiring stories, we bring you valuable information that you won't find anywhere else. Stay connected with us!


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Popular

    • 1

      Top 10 Countries for Natural Gas Production (Updated 2024)

      April 6, 2024
    • 2

      Trump-era China sanctions ended by Biden may be revived under new House GOP bill

      June 27, 2024
    • 3

      Top 10 Uranium-producing Countries (Updated 2024)

      April 18, 2024
    • 4

      A GOP operative accused a monastery of voter fraud. Nuns fought back.

      January 3, 2025
    • 5

      Australian abolitionist, Grace Forrest, receives coveted ‘Freedom from Fear’ award

      April 13, 2024
    • 6

      LME Sanctions on Russian Metal Push Copper, Nickel and Aluminum Prices Higher

      April 17, 2024
    • 7

      Blinken, ahead of China visit, calls out Beijing’s ongoing ‘genocide’ against minority Muslims

      April 23, 2024

    Categories

    • Business (1,027)
    • Investing (2,041)
    • Politics (2,977)
    • Uncategorized (20)
    • World (3,341)
    • About us
    • Contact us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: thriftybanker.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 thriftybanker.com | All Rights Reserved